Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Titanic Passenger Survival: A Comprehensive Statistical Investigation

1 Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive Bayesian hierarchical analysis of survival patterns among Titanic passengers. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods implemented through JAGS, we investigate the probabilistic relationships between passenger characteristics and survival outcomes. The analysis employs a hierarchical logistic regression model with random effects for embarkation ports, incorporating weakly informative priors following current Bayesian best practices. Our findings quantify the dramatic effects of gender, social class, age, and family structure on survival probability, providing probabilistic estimates with full uncertainty quantification that classical frequentist approaches cannot deliver.

2 Introduction and Motivation

The sinking of RMS Titanic on April 14-15, 1912, represents one of the most extensively documented maritime disasters in modern history. Beyond its historical significance, this tragic event provides an exceptional opportunity for statistical analysis, offering a rich dataset that allows us to investigate the factors determining human survival under extreme conditions.

2.1 Rationale for Bayesian Methodology

The Bayesian approach offers several methodological advantages over classical frequentist methods for this analysis:

1. Natural Uncertainty Quantification: Bayesian inference provides complete posterior distributions for all parameters, enabling direct probability statements about parameter values.

2. Hierarchical Structure: The natural grouping of passengers by embarkation port creates a hierarchical data structure that Bayesian methods handle elegantly through random effects.

3. Prior Information Integration: Bayesian methods allow incorporation of historical knowledge about human behavior in emergency situations through informative prior distributions.

4. Model Comparison: Bayesian model selection criteria (DIC, WAIC, LOO) provide principled approaches to compare competing hypotheses.

2.2 Research Objectives

This investigation aims to:

• Quantify the probabilistic impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on survival
• Develop a predictive model capable of generalizing to similar emergency scenarios
• Demonstrate methodological superiority of Bayesian approaches through rigorous validation
• Provide uncertainty quantification for all inferences through complete posterior distributions

3 Dataset Description and Exploratory Analysis

3.1 Data Structure and Characteristics

# Load and examine the Titanic dataset
titanic_raw <- read_csv('/Users/roberto/Desktop/titanic_project/train (2).csv', 
                        show_col_types = FALSE)

# Display dataset dimensions and structure
cat("Dataset Dimensions:", nrow(titanic_raw), "observations,", ncol(titanic_raw), "variables\n")

Dataset Dimensions: 891 observations, 12 variables

glimpse(titanic_raw)

Rows: 891
Columns: 12
$ PassengerId <dbl> 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17,…
$ Survived    <dbl> 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1…
$ Pclass      <dbl> 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3…
$ Name        <chr> "Braund, Mr. Owen Harris", "Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Fl…
$ Sex         <chr> "male", "female", "female", "female", "male", "male", "mal…
$ Age         <dbl> 22, 38, 26, 35, 35, NA, 54, 2, 27, 14, 4, 58, 20, 39, 14, …
$ SibSp       <dbl> 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 4, 0, 1, 0…
$ Parch       <dbl> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0…
$ Ticket      <chr> "A/5 21171", "PC 17599", "STON/O2. 3101282", "113803", "37…
$ Fare        <dbl> 7.2500, 71.2833, 7.9250, 53.1000, 8.0500, 8.4583, 51.8625,…
$ Cabin       <chr> NA, "C85", NA, "C123", NA, NA, "E46", NA, NA, NA, "G6", "C…
$ Embarked    <chr> "S", "C", "S", "S", "S", "Q", "S", "S", "S", "C", "S", "S"…

The dataset contains 891 passenger records with 12 variables, representing a subset of the complete passenger manifest. Key variables include survival status (binary), passenger class (ordinal), demographic characteristics (age, sex), family composition (siblings/spouses, parents/children), fare paid, and embarkation port.

3.2 Missing Data Analysis

# Comprehensive missing data analysis
missing_analysis <- titanic_raw %>%
  summarise_all(~sum(is.na(.))) %>%
  gather(Variable, Missing_Count) %>%
  mutate(Missing_Percentage = round(Missing_Count / nrow(titanic_raw) * 100, 2)) %>%
  arrange(desc(Missing_Count))

missing_analysis %>%
  kable(caption = "Missing Data Patterns", 
        col.names = c("Variable", "Missing Count", "Missing %"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Missing Data Patterns

Variable	Missing Count	Missing %
Cabin	687	77.10
Age	177	19.87
Embarked	2	0.22
PassengerId	0	0.00
Survived	0	0.00
Pclass	0	0.00
Name	0	0.00
Sex	0	0.00
SibSp	0	0.00
Parch	0	0.00
Ticket	0	0.00
Fare	0	0.00

# Visualize missing data patterns
aggr(titanic_raw, col = c('navyblue', 'red'), 
     numbers = TRUE, sortVars = TRUE, 
     main = "Missing Data Pattern Analysis")

 Variables sorted by number of missings: 
    Variable       Count
       Cabin 0.771043771
         Age 0.198653199
    Embarked 0.002244669
 PassengerId 0.000000000
    Survived 0.000000000
      Pclass 0.000000000
        Name 0.000000000
         Sex 0.000000000
       SibSp 0.000000000
       Parch 0.000000000
      Ticket 0.000000000
        Fare 0.000000000

# Test MCAR assumption
mcar_result <- mcar_test(titanic_raw)
cat("\nMCAR Test Results:\n")

MCAR Test Results:

cat("Test Statistic:", round(mcar_result$statistic, 3), "\n")

Test Statistic: 598.542 

cat("p-value:", round(mcar_result$p.value, 3), "\n")

p-value: 0 

cat("Conclusion:", ifelse(mcar_result$p.value > 0.05, 
                         "Consistent with MCAR", 
                         "Evidence against MCAR"), "\n")

Conclusion: Evidence against MCAR 

The missing data pattern reveals three primary areas of concern:

1. Cabin Information (77.1% missing): The high missingness rate for cabin data reflects the social stratification of 1912, where lower-class passengers often lacked assigned cabin numbers.

2. Age Data (19.9% missing): Age information was frequently unrecorded or inaccurate in historical passenger manifests.

3. Embarkation Port (0.2% missing): Nearly complete information, reflecting the importance of port documentation for maritime records.

The MCAR test provides evidence about the nature of missingness patterns, informing our imputation strategy.

3.3 Enhanced Data Preprocessing with Multiple Imputation

# Multiple imputation for age variable
set.seed(42)
mice_imputation <- mice(titanic_raw %>% select(Age, Sex, Pclass, SibSp, Parch, Fare), 
                       m = 5, method = 'pmm', printFlag = FALSE)

# Extract completed datasets and use the first one for main analysis
titanic_completed <- complete(mice_imputation, 1)

# Comprehensive data preprocessing with theoretical justification
titanic <- titanic_raw %>%
  mutate(
    # Use multiply imputed age
    Age = titanic_completed$Age,
    
    # Convert survival to factor for clarity
    Survived = factor(Survived, levels = c(0, 1), labels = c("No", "Yes")),
    
    # Convert passenger class to ordered factor (3rd class as reference)
    Pclass = factor(Pclass, levels = c("3", "2", "1"), ordered = TRUE),
    
    # Convert sex to factor
    Sex = factor(Sex),
    
    # Impute embarkation port with mode (Southampton)
    Embarked = fct_na_value_to_level(factor(Embarked), level = "S"),
    
    # Feature engineering: Family size as predictor of survival
    FamilySize = SibSp + Parch + 1,
    
    # Categorical family size for interpretation
    FamilyCategory = case_when(
      FamilySize == 1 ~ "Alone",
      FamilySize %in% 2:4 ~ "Small",
      FamilySize >= 5 ~ "Large"
    )
  )

# Compare imputation methods
age_comparison <- data.frame(
  Method = c("Original (complete cases)", "Median Imputation", "Multiple Imputation"),
  Mean = c(mean(titanic_raw$Age, na.rm=T), 
           median(titanic_raw$Age, na.rm=T),
           mean(titanic$Age)),
  SD = c(sd(titanic_raw$Age, na.rm=T), 
         sd(titanic_raw$Age, na.rm=T),
         sd(titanic$Age))
)

age_comparison %>%
  kable(digits = 2, caption = "Comparison of Age Imputation Methods",
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Comparison of Age Imputation Methods

Method	Mean	SD
Original (complete cases)	29.70	14.53
Median Imputation	28.00	14.53
Multiple Imputation	29.94	13.99

3.4 Exploratory Data Analysis

3.4.1 Survival Patterns by Key Predictors

# Calculate key survival statistics
survival_stats <- list(
  Overall = mean(titanic$Survived == "Yes") * 100,
  Female = mean(titanic$Survived[titanic$Sex == "female"] == "Yes") * 100,
  Male = mean(titanic$Survived[titanic$Sex == "male"] == "Yes") * 100,
  First_Class = mean(titanic$Survived[titanic$Pclass == "1"] == "Yes") * 100,
  Second_Class = mean(titanic$Survived[titanic$Pclass == "2"] == "Yes") * 100,
  Third_Class = mean(titanic$Survived[titanic$Pclass == "3"] == "Yes") * 100
)

# Create summary table
survival_summary <- data.frame(
  Category = c("Overall", "Female", "Male", "First Class", "Second Class", "Third Class"),
  Survival_Rate = round(unlist(survival_stats), 1)
)

survival_summary %>%
  kable(caption = "Survival Rates by Passenger Category",
        col.names = c("Category", "Survival Rate (%)"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Survival Rates by Passenger Category

	Category	Survival Rate (%)
Overall	Overall	38.4
Female	Female	74.2
Male	Male	18.9
First_Class	First Class	63.0
Second_Class	Second Class	47.3
Third_Class	Third Class	24.2

3.4.2 Visualizing Key Relationships

# Age distribution comparison
p1 <- ggplot(titanic, aes(x = Age)) +
  geom_histogram(binwidth = 5, fill = custom_colors[1], color = "white", alpha = 0.8) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = median(titanic$Age), linetype = "dashed", color = "red") +
  labs(title = "Age Distribution (Multiple Imputation)", 
       x = "Age (years)", y = "Frequency") +
  theme_minimal()

# Family size effect
p2 <- ggplot(titanic, aes(x = factor(FamilySize), fill = Survived)) +
  geom_bar(position = "fill", alpha = 0.8) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format()) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = custom_colors[c(4, 3)]) +
  labs(title = "Survival Rate by Family Size", 
       x = "Family Size", y = "Proportion") +
  theme_minimal()

# Survival by class and sex
p3 <- ggplot(titanic, aes(x = Pclass, fill = Survived)) +
  geom_bar(position = "fill", alpha = 0.8) +
  facet_wrap(~Sex) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format()) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = custom_colors[c(4, 3)]) +
  labs(title = "Survival Rate by Class and Sex", 
       x = "Passenger Class", y = "Proportion") +
  theme_minimal()

# Age vs survival
p4 <- ggplot(titanic, aes(x = Age, fill = Survived)) +
  geom_density(alpha = 0.6) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = custom_colors[c(4, 3)]) +
  labs(title = "Age Distribution by Survival", 
       x = "Age (years)", y = "Density") +
  theme_minimal()

print(p1)

print(p2)

print(p3)

print(p4)

4 Statistical Model Specification

4.1 Theoretical Foundation

4.1.1 Model Choice Justification

We employ a hierarchical logistic regression model for several theoretical reasons:

1. Binary Outcome: Survival is inherently binary, making the Bernoulli distribution the natural choice.

2. Logit Link Function: The logit transformation maps probabilities to the real line, enabling linear modeling of the systematic component.

3. Hierarchical Structure: Passengers are naturally grouped by embarkation port, creating correlation within groups that violates independence assumptions of standard logistic regression.

4. Random Effects: Port-specific random intercepts capture unobserved heterogeneity (cultural differences, boarding procedures, social composition).

4.2 Mathematical Formulation

The hierarchical logistic regression model is specified as:

\[\begin{aligned} y_i &\sim \text{Bernoulli}(p_i) \\[0.3em] \text{logit}(p_i) &= \mathbf{X}_i^T\boldsymbol{\beta} + u_{j[i]} \\[0.3em] \text{where } \mathbf{X}_i^T\boldsymbol{\beta} &= \beta_0 + \beta_{\text{female}} \cdot \mathbb{I}(\text{Sex}_i = \text{female}) \\ &\quad + \beta_{\text{age}} \cdot \text{Age}_i^* + \beta_{\text{fare}} \cdot \text{Fare}_i^* \\ &\quad + \beta_{\text{family}} \cdot \text{FamSize}_i^* + \beta_{\text{family}^2} \cdot (\text{FamSize}_i^*)^2 \\ &\quad + \beta_{\text{class1}} \cdot \mathbb{I}(\text{Pclass}_i = 1) \\ &\quad + \beta_{\text{class2}} \cdot \mathbb{I}(\text{Pclass}_i = 2) \\[0.3em] u_j &\sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_u^2), \quad j \in \{1, 2, 3\} \\[0.3em] \boldsymbol{\beta} &\sim \mathcal{N}(\mathbf{0}, 10^2 \mathbf{I}) \\[0.3em] \sigma_u &\sim \text{Half-Cauchy}(0, 5) \end{aligned}\]

4.3 Prior Sensitivity Analysis

# Define different prior scales for sensitivity analysis
prior_scales <- c(0.001, 0.01, 0.1)  # Different precisions in JAGS
prior_labels <- c("Strong (τ=0.001)", "Weak (τ=0.01)", "Very Weak (τ=0.1)")

cat("Prior Sensitivity Analysis:\n")

Prior Sensitivity Analysis:

cat("Testing regression coefficient priors with different precisions:\n")

Testing regression coefficient priors with different precisions:

for(i in 1:length(prior_scales)) {
  sd_equiv <- sqrt(1/prior_scales[i])
  cat(sprintf("- %s: N(0, %.3f) ⟺ SD = %.1f\n", 
              prior_labels[i], prior_scales[i], sd_equiv))
}

- Strong (τ=0.001): N(0, 0.001) ⟺ SD = 31.6
- Weak (τ=0.01): N(0, 0.010) ⟺ SD = 10.0
- Very Weak (τ=0.1): N(0, 0.100) ⟺ SD = 3.2

4.4 Data Preparation for MCMC

# Prepare data list for JAGS with optimal transformations
data_list <- list(
  N                 = nrow(titanic),
  y                 = as.numeric(titanic$Survived == "Yes"),
  age_std           = as.numeric(scale(titanic$Age)),
  fare_std          = as.numeric(scale(titanic$Fare)),
  family_size_std   = as.numeric(scale(titanic$FamilySize)),
  family_size_sq_std = as.numeric(scale(titanic$FamilySize^2)),
  female            = as.integer(titanic$Sex == "female"),
  class_1           = as.integer(titanic$Pclass == "1"),
  class_2           = as.integer(titanic$Pclass == "2"),
  embarked_idx      = as.integer(titanic$Embarked),
  n_embarked        = nlevels(titanic$Embarked)
)

# Display data structure
str(data_list)

List of 11
 $ N                 : int 891
 $ y                 : num [1:891] 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 ...
 $ age_std           : num [1:891] -0.567 0.577 -0.281 0.362 0.362 ...
 $ fare_std          : num [1:891] -0.502 0.786 -0.489 0.42 -0.486 ...
 $ family_size_std   : num [1:891] 0.0591 0.0591 -0.5607 0.0591 -0.5607 ...
 $ family_size_sq_std: num [1:891] -0.158 -0.158 -0.37 -0.158 -0.37 ...
 $ female            : int [1:891] 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 ...
 $ class_1           : int [1:891] 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 ...
 $ class_2           : int [1:891] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ...
 $ embarked_idx      : int [1:891] 3 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 ...
 $ n_embarked        : int 3

# Quality checks
cat("Quality Checks:\n")

Quality Checks:

cat("Standardized age range:", round(range(data_list$age_std), 2), "\n")

Standardized age range: -2.11 3.58 

cat("Standardized fare range:", round(range(data_list$fare_std), 2), "\n")

Standardized fare range: -0.65 9.66 

cat("Survival rate:", round(mean(data_list$y) * 100, 1), "%\n")

Survival rate: 38.4 %

cat("Embarkation port distribution:\n")

Embarkation port distribution:

print(table(data_list$embarked_idx))

  1   2   3 
168  77 646 

5 MCMC Implementation and Model Fitting

5.1 Base Model Implementation

# Define hierarchical logistic regression model in JAGS syntax
model_base_string <- "
model {
  # Likelihood specification
  for(i in 1:N) {
    y[i] ~ dbern(p[i])
    logit(p[i]) <- beta0 + 
                   beta_female * female[i] + 
                   beta_age * age_std[i] + 
                   beta_fare * fare_std[i] + 
                   beta_family * family_size_std[i] + 
                   beta_family_sq * family_size_sq_std[i] + 
                   beta_class1 * class_1[i] + 
                   beta_class2 * class_2[i] + 
                   u_embarked[embarked_idx[i]]
  }
  
  # Prior specifications
  beta0        ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)  # precision = 0.01 => variance = 100
  beta_female  ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_age     ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_fare    ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_family  ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_family_sq ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_class1  ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_class2  ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  
  # Random effects for embarkation ports
  for(j in 1:n_embarked) { 
    u_embarked[j] ~ dnorm(0, tau_u) 
  }
  
  # Half-Cauchy prior for random effect standard deviation
  tau_u <- pow(sigma_u, -2)
  sigma_u ~ dt(0, pow(5, -2), 1) T(0,)
}
"

# Clear any existing models
if(exists("mod_base")) rm(mod_base)
if(exists("samples_base")) rm(samples_base)

# Compile and initialize model
set.seed(42)
mod_base <- jags.model(
  textConnection(model_base_string), 
  data = data_list, 
  n.chains = 4,
  n.adapt = 5000,
  quiet = TRUE
)

# Burn-in period
update(mod_base, n.iter = 15000)

# MCMC sampling
samples_base <- coda.samples(
  mod_base,
  variable.names = c("beta0", "beta_female", "beta_age", "beta_fare",
                     "beta_family", "beta_family_sq", "beta_class1", 
                     "beta_class2", "sigma_u", "u_embarked"),
  n.iter = 30000,
  thin = 20
)

cat("MCMC sampling completed: 4 chains × 30,000 iterations (thinned by 20)\n")

MCMC sampling completed: 4 chains × 30,000 iterations (thinned by 20)

cat("Total posterior samples: 6,000\n")

Total posterior samples: 6,000

5.2 Alternative Model with Interactions

# Extended model with gender × class interactions
model_alt_string <- "
model {
  for(i in 1:N) {
    y[i] ~ dbern(p[i])
    logit(p[i]) <- beta0 + 
                   beta_female * female[i] + 
                   beta_age * age_std[i] + 
                   beta_fare * fare_std[i] + 
                   beta_family * family_size_std[i] + 
                   beta_family_sq * family_size_sq_std[i] + 
                   beta_class1 * class_1[i] + 
                   beta_class2 * class_2[i] + 
                   beta_int_fem_c1 * female[i] * class_1[i] +
                   beta_int_fem_c2 * female[i] * class_2[i] +
                   u_embarked[embarked_idx[i]]
  }
  
  # Same priors as base model plus interaction terms
  beta0 ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_female ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_age ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_fare ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_family ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_family_sq ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_class1 ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_class2 ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  beta_int_fem_c1 ~ dnorm(0, 0.01); beta_int_fem_c2 ~ dnorm(0, 0.01)
  
  for(j in 1:n_embarked) { u_embarked[j] ~ dnorm(0, tau_u) }
  tau_u <- pow(sigma_u, -2)
  sigma_u ~ dt(0, pow(5, -2), 1) T(0,)
}
"

# Clear existing alternative model
if(exists("mod_alt")) rm(mod_alt)
if(exists("samples_alt")) rm(samples_alt)

# Compile alternative model
mod_alt <- jags.model(
  textConnection(model_alt_string), 
  data = data_list, 
  n.chains = 4, 
  n.adapt = 5000, 
  quiet = TRUE
)

update(mod_alt, n.iter = 15000)

samples_alt <- coda.samples(
  mod_alt,
  variable.names = c("beta0", "beta_female", "beta_age", "beta_fare",
                     "beta_family", "beta_family_sq", "beta_class1", 
                     "beta_class2", "beta_int_fem_c1", "beta_int_fem_c2",
                     "sigma_u", "u_embarked"),
  n.iter = 30000,
  thin = 20
)

5.3 Prior Sensitivity Analysis Implementation

# Fit model with different prior scales for sensitivity analysis
fit_sensitivity_model <- function(prior_precision, label) {
  model_string <- paste0("
  model {
    for(i in 1:N) {
      y[i] ~ dbern(p[i])
      logit(p[i]) <- beta0 + 
                     beta_female * female[i] + 
                     beta_age * age_std[i] + 
                     beta_fare * fare_std[i] + 
                     beta_family * family_size_std[i] + 
                     beta_family_sq * family_size_sq_std[i] + 
                     beta_class1 * class_1[i] + 
                     beta_class2 * class_2[i] + 
                     u_embarked[embarked_idx[i]]
    }
    
    # Priors with specified precision
    beta0 ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_female ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_age ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_fare ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_family ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_family_sq ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_class1 ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    beta_class2 ~ dnorm(0, ", prior_precision, ")
    
    for(j in 1:n_embarked) { u_embarked[j] ~ dnorm(0, tau_u) }
    tau_u <- pow(sigma_u, -2)
    sigma_u ~ dt(0, pow(5, -2), 1) T(0,)
  }")
  
  mod <- jags.model(textConnection(model_string), data = data_list, 
                    n.chains = 2, n.adapt = 2000, quiet = TRUE)
  update(mod, n.iter = 5000)
  samples <- coda.samples(mod, 
                         variable.names = c("beta_female", "beta_class1"), 
                         n.iter = 10000, thin = 10)
  return(samples)
}

# Run sensitivity analysis for key parameters
sensitivity_results <- list()
for(i in 1:length(prior_scales)) {
  sensitivity_results[[i]] <- fit_sensitivity_model(prior_scales[i], prior_labels[i])
}

# Compare results
sensitivity_summary <- data.frame(
  Prior = prior_labels,
  Beta_Female_Mean = sapply(sensitivity_results, function(x) mean(as.matrix(x)[,"beta_female"])),
  Beta_Female_SD = sapply(sensitivity_results, function(x) sd(as.matrix(x)[,"beta_female"])),
  Beta_Class1_Mean = sapply(sensitivity_results, function(x) mean(as.matrix(x)[,"beta_class1"])),
  Beta_Class1_SD = sapply(sensitivity_results, function(x) sd(as.matrix(x)[,"beta_class1"]))
)

sensitivity_summary %>%
  kable(caption = "Prior Sensitivity Analysis Results", digits = 3,
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Prior Sensitivity Analysis Results

Prior	Beta_Female_Mean	Beta_Female_SD	Beta_Class1_Mean	Beta_Class1_SD
Strong (τ=0.001)	2.691	0.197	2.054	0.301
Weak (τ=0.01)	2.684	0.205	2.058	0.303
Very Weak (τ=0.1)	2.671	0.198	2.036	0.299

6 Results and Posterior Inference

6.1 Posterior Summary Statistics

# Extract posterior summaries for main parameters
main_params <- c("beta0", "beta_female", "beta_age", "beta_fare",
                 "beta_family", "beta_family_sq", "beta_class1", 
                 "beta_class2", "sigma_u")

posterior_summary <- summary(samples_base[, main_params])

# Create formatted results table
posterior_table <- data.frame(
  Parameter = rownames(posterior_summary$statistics),
  Mean = round(posterior_summary$statistics[, "Mean"], 3),
  SD = round(posterior_summary$statistics[, "SD"], 3),
  CI_2.5 = round(posterior_summary$quantiles[, "2.5%"], 3),
  CI_97.5 = round(posterior_summary$quantiles[, "97.5%"], 3)
) %>%
  mutate(
    Significant = ifelse(sign(CI_2.5) == sign(CI_97.5), "Yes", "No")
  )

posterior_table %>%
  kable(caption = "Posterior Summary Statistics - Base Model",
        col.names = c("Parameter", "Mean", "SD", "2.5%", "97.5%", "Significant"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Posterior Summary Statistics - Base Model

	Parameter	Mean	SD	2.5%	97.5%	Significant
beta0	beta0	-2.245	0.662	-3.390	-0.731	Yes
beta_female	beta_female	2.689	0.202	2.296	3.087	Yes
beta_age	beta_age	-0.471	0.108	-0.683	-0.265	Yes
beta_fare	beta_fare	0.138	0.126	-0.095	0.402	No
beta_family	beta_family	0.829	0.407	0.064	1.656	Yes
beta_family_sq	beta_family_sq	-1.635	0.547	-2.761	-0.647	Yes
beta_class1	beta_class1	2.051	0.303	1.457	2.659	Yes
beta_class2	beta_class2	1.074	0.241	0.606	1.549	Yes
sigma_u	sigma_u	0.710	1.014	0.021	3.655	Yes

6.2 Odds Ratio Interpretation

# Calculate odds ratios and credible intervals
posterior_means <- colMeans(as.matrix(samples_base[, main_params]))
odds_ratios <- exp(posterior_means[grep("beta", names(posterior_means))])

# Odds ratio credible intervals
or_ci_lower <- exp(posterior_table$CI_2.5[1:8])
or_ci_upper <- exp(posterior_table$CI_97.5[1:8])

# Create interpretation table
interpretation_data <- data.frame(
  Variable = c("Intercept", "Female vs Male", "Age (per SD)", 
               "Fare (per SD)", "Family Size (per SD)", 
               "Family Size² (per SD)", "1st vs 3rd Class", "2nd vs 3rd Class"),
  Odds_Ratio = round(odds_ratios, 2),
  CI_Lower = round(or_ci_lower, 2),
  CI_Upper = round(or_ci_upper, 2)
)

interpretation_data %>%
  kable(caption = "Odds Ratios with 95% Credible Intervals",
        col.names = c("Variable", "Odds Ratio", "CI Lower", "CI Upper"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Odds Ratios with 95% Credible Intervals

	Variable	Odds Ratio	CI Lower	CI Upper
beta0	Intercept	0.11	0.03	0.48
beta_female	Female vs Male	14.71	9.93	21.91
beta_age	Age (per SD)	0.62	0.51	0.77
beta_fare	Fare (per SD)	1.15	0.91	1.49
beta_family	Family Size (per SD)	2.29	1.07	5.24
beta_family_sq	Family Size² (per SD)	0.20	0.06	0.52
beta_class1	1st vs 3rd Class	7.77	4.29	14.28
beta_class2	2nd vs 3rd Class	2.93	1.83	4.71

# Key findings summary
cat("Key Findings:\n")

Key Findings:

cat("Female survival odds:", round((odds_ratios[2] - 1) * 100, 0), "% higher than males\n")

Female survival odds: 1371 % higher than males

cat("1st class survival odds:", round((odds_ratios[7] - 1) * 100, 0), "% higher than 3rd class\n")

1st class survival odds: 677 % higher than 3rd class

cat("2nd class survival odds:", round((odds_ratios[8] - 1) * 100, 0), "% higher than 3rd class\n")

2nd class survival odds: 193 % higher than 3rd class

6.3 Interaction Effects Analysis

# Extract interaction parameters from alternative model
interaction_summary <- summary(samples_alt[, c("beta_int_fem_c1", "beta_int_fem_c2")])

interaction_table <- data.frame(
  Interaction = c("Female × 1st Class", "Female × 2nd Class"),
  Mean = round(interaction_summary$statistics[, "Mean"], 3),
  SD = round(interaction_summary$statistics[, "SD"], 3),
  CI_2.5 = round(interaction_summary$quantiles[, "2.5%"], 3),
  CI_97.5 = round(interaction_summary$quantiles[, "97.5%"], 3)
)

interaction_table %>%
  kable(caption = "Gender × Class Interaction Effects",
        col.names = c("Interaction", "Mean", "SD", "2.5%", "97.5%"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Gender × Class Interaction Effects

	Interaction	Mean	SD	2.5%	97.5%
beta_int_fem_c1	Female × 1st Class	2.142	0.717	0.863	3.657
beta_int_fem_c2	Female × 2nd Class	2.551	0.579	1.472	3.765

# Calculate survival probabilities for different groups
calculate_survival_probs <- function(samples, female, class1, class2) {
  samples_mat <- as.matrix(samples)
  
  # Use mean values for other variables
  age_std_mean <- 0  # standardized
  fare_std_mean <- 0
  family_size_std_mean <- 0
  family_size_sq_std_mean <- 0
  u_embarked_mean <- 0  # assume Southampton (most common)
  
  eta <- samples_mat[,"beta0"] +
         samples_mat[,"beta_female"] * female +
         samples_mat[,"beta_age"] * age_std_mean +
         samples_mat[,"beta_fare"] * fare_std_mean +
         samples_mat[,"beta_family"] * family_size_std_mean +
         samples_mat[,"beta_family_sq"] * family_size_sq_std_mean +
         samples_mat[,"beta_class1"] * class1 +
         samples_mat[,"beta_class2"] * class2 +
         samples_mat[,"beta_int_fem_c1"] * female * class1 +
         samples_mat[,"beta_int_fem_c2"] * female * class2 +
         u_embarked_mean
  
  return(plogis(eta))
}

# Calculate survival probabilities for all gender-class combinations
survival_probs <- data.frame(
  Group = c("Male 3rd Class", "Male 2nd Class", "Male 1st Class",
            "Female 3rd Class", "Female 2nd Class", "Female 1st Class"),
  Mean_Probability = c(
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 0, 0, 0)),
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 0, 0, 1)),
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 0, 1, 0)),
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 1, 0, 0)),
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 1, 0, 1)),
    mean(calculate_survival_probs(samples_alt, 1, 1, 0))
  )
)

survival_probs %>%
  mutate(Mean_Probability = round(Mean_Probability, 3)) %>%
  kable(caption = "Predicted Survival Probabilities by Group",
        col.names = c("Group", "Survival Probability"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Predicted Survival Probabilities by Group

Group	Survival Probability
Male 3rd Class	0.149
Male 2nd Class	0.174
Male 1st Class	0.441
Female 3rd Class	0.487
Female 2nd Class	0.909
Female 1st Class	0.954

6.4 MCMC Convergence Diagnostics

# Calculate convergence diagnostics
rhat_values <- gelman.diag(samples_base[, main_params], multivariate = FALSE)$psrf
ess_values <- effectiveSize(samples_base[, main_params])

# Create diagnostics table
convergence_diagnostics <- data.frame(
  Parameter = names(ess_values),
  R_hat = round(rhat_values[, 1], 4),
  ESS = round(ess_values, 0),
  ESS_per_chain = round(ess_values / 4, 0)
)

convergence_diagnostics %>%
  kable(caption = "MCMC Convergence Diagnostics",
        col.names = c("Parameter", "R̂", "ESS", "ESS per Chain"),
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

MCMC Convergence Diagnostics

	Parameter	R	ES
beta0	beta0	1.0613	325	81
beta_female	beta_female	0.9998	5773	1443
beta_age	beta_age	1.0002	5838	1460
beta_fare	beta_fare	1.0010	6000	1500
beta_family	beta_family	1.0017	2799	700
beta_family_sq	beta_family_sq	1.0015	2785	696
beta_class1	beta_class1	1.0007	6074	1518
beta_class2	beta_class2	1.0001	5645	1411
sigma_u	sigma_u	1.0175	690	173

# Trace plots for key parameters
color_scheme_set("viridis")
mcmc_trace(samples_base, pars = main_params[1:4]) +
  ggtitle("MCMC Trace Plots") +
  theme(legend.position = "none")

# Density plots
mcmc_dens(samples_base, pars = main_params[1:4]) +
  ggtitle("Posterior Density Plots")

7 Enhanced Model Comparison and Selection

# Calculate DIC for both models
dic_base <- dic.samples(mod_base, n.iter = 20000, type = "pD")
dic_alt <- dic.samples(mod_alt, n.iter = 20000, type = "pD")

# Extract DIC components
dic_base_value <- sum(dic_base$deviance) + sum(dic_base$penalty)
dic_alt_value <- sum(dic_alt$deviance) + sum(dic_alt$penalty)
delta_dic <- dic_alt_value - dic_base_value

# Calculate Bayes factors (approximate)
# Using DIC as approximation: BF ≈ exp(-0.5 * ΔDIC)
bayes_factor <- exp(-0.5 * delta_dic)

# Model comparison table
model_comparison <- data.frame(
  Model = c("Base Model", "Model with Interactions"),
  Deviance = c(sum(dic_base$deviance), sum(dic_alt$deviance)),
  pD = c(sum(dic_base$penalty), sum(dic_alt$penalty)),
  DIC = c(dic_base_value, dic_alt_value),
  Delta_DIC = c(0, delta_dic),
  Bayes_Factor = c(1, bayes_factor)
)

model_comparison %>%
  kable(caption = "Enhanced Model Comparison",
        digits = 2,
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Enhanced Model Comparison

Model	Deviance	pD	DIC	Delta_DIC	Bayes_Factor
Base Model	787.99	9.55	797.54	0.00	1.0
Model with Interactions	761.71	11.75	773.46	-24.08	169230.8

# Evidence interpretation
evidence_strength <- case_when(
  abs(delta_dic) <= 2 ~ "Weak evidence",
  abs(delta_dic) <= 5 ~ "Moderate evidence",
  abs(delta_dic) <= 10 ~ "Strong evidence",
  TRUE ~ "Very strong evidence"
)

bayes_factor_interpretation <- case_when(
  bayes_factor < 1/10 ~ "Strong evidence for base model",
  bayes_factor < 1/3 ~ "Moderate evidence for base model", 
  bayes_factor < 3 ~ "Weak evidence either way",
  bayes_factor < 10 ~ "Moderate evidence for interaction model",
  TRUE ~ "Strong evidence for interaction model"
)

cat("Model Selection Results:\n")

Model Selection Results:

cat("ΔDIC (Interaction - Base):", round(delta_dic, 2), "\n")

ΔDIC (Interaction - Base): -24.08 

cat("Evidence strength:", evidence_strength, "\n")

Evidence strength: Very strong evidence 

cat("Bayes factor:", round(bayes_factor, 2), "\n")

Bayes factor: 169230.8 

cat("BF interpretation:", bayes_factor_interpretation, "\n")

BF interpretation: Strong evidence for interaction model 

# Select best model
best_model <- if_else(delta_dic < -2, "interaction", "base")
best_samples <- if_else(delta_dic < -2, list(samples_alt), list(samples_base))[[1]]

cat("Selected model:", best_model, "\n")

Selected model: interaction 

# Model averaging weights (if evidence is not strong)
if(abs(delta_dic) <= 5) {
  weight_base <- exp(-0.5 * 0) / (exp(-0.5 * 0) + exp(-0.5 * delta_dic))
  weight_alt <- exp(-0.5 * delta_dic) / (exp(-0.5 * 0) + exp(-0.5 * delta_dic))
  
  cat("\nModel averaging weights:\n")
  cat("Base model weight:", round(weight_base, 3), "\n")
  cat("Interaction model weight:", round(weight_alt, 3), "\n")
}

8 Model Validation and Posterior Predictive Checks

# Enhanced posterior predictive check function
generate_replicated_data <- function(samples_matrix, data_list, model_type = "base") {
  n_samples <- min(nrow(samples_matrix), 500)
  sample_indices <- sample(nrow(samples_matrix), n_samples)
  samples_subset <- samples_matrix[sample_indices, ]
  
  n_obs <- data_list$N
  y_rep <- matrix(NA, n_samples, n_obs)
  
  for (i in 1:n_samples) {
    s <- samples_subset[i, ]
    
    # Extract random effects properly
    u_effects <- s[grep("^u_embarked\\[", names(s))]
    if(length(u_effects) == 3) {
      random_effects <- u_effects[data_list$embarked_idx]
    } else {
      random_effects <- rep(0, length(data_list$embarked_idx))
    }
    
    eta <- s["beta0"] +
           s["beta_female"] * data_list$female +
           s["beta_age"] * data_list$age_std +
           s["beta_fare"] * data_list$fare_std +
           s["beta_family"] * data_list$family_size_std +
           s["beta_family_sq"] * data_list$family_size_sq_std +
           s["beta_class1"] * data_list$class_1 +
           s["beta_class2"] * data_list$class_2 +
           random_effects
    
    if (model_type == "interaction") {
      eta <- eta + s["beta_int_fem_c1"] * data_list$female * data_list$class_1 +
                   s["beta_int_fem_c2"] * data_list$female * data_list$class_2
    }
    
    p <- plogis(eta)
    y_rep[i, ] <- rbinom(n_obs, 1, p)
  }
  
  return(y_rep)
}

# Generate replicated data
samples_matrix <- as.matrix(best_samples)
model_type <- if_else(best_model == "interaction", "interaction", "base")
y_rep <- generate_replicated_data(samples_matrix, data_list, model_type)

# Multiple posterior predictive checks

# 1. Overall survival rate
obs_survival_rate <- mean(data_list$y)
rep_survival_rates <- rowMeans(y_rep)
p_value_global <- mean(rep_survival_rates > obs_survival_rate)

p1 <- ggplot(data.frame(rate = rep_survival_rates), aes(x = rate)) +
  geom_histogram(aes(y = after_stat(density)), bins = 30, 
                 fill = custom_colors[1], alpha = 0.7) +
  geom_density(color = custom_colors[2], linewidth = 1) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = obs_survival_rate, color = "red", 
             linetype = "dashed", linewidth = 1) +
  labs(title = "PPC: Overall Survival Rate",
       x = "Replicated Survival Rate", y = "Density") +
  theme_minimal()

# 2. Survival by sex
obs_female_survival <- mean(data_list$y[data_list$female == 1])
obs_male_survival <- mean(data_list$y[data_list$female == 0])

rep_female_survival <- rowMeans(y_rep[, data_list$female == 1])
rep_male_survival <- rowMeans(y_rep[, data_list$female == 0])

p2 <- ggplot() +
  geom_density(aes(rep_female_survival), fill = custom_colors[1], alpha = 0.6) +
  geom_density(aes(rep_male_survival), fill = custom_colors[2], alpha = 0.6) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = obs_female_survival, color = custom_colors[1], linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = obs_male_survival, color = custom_colors[2], linetype = "dashed") +
  labs(title = "PPC: Survival by Sex", x = "Survival Rate", y = "Density") +
  theme_minimal()

# 3. Survival by class
class_groups <- list("3rd" = data_list$class_1 == 0 & data_list$class_2 == 0,
                     "2nd" = data_list$class_2 == 1,
                     "1st" = data_list$class_1 == 1)

obs_class_survival <- sapply(class_groups, function(idx) mean(data_list$y[idx]))
rep_class_survival <- sapply(class_groups, function(idx) rowMeans(y_rep[, idx]))

class_ppc_data <- data.frame(
  Class = rep(names(obs_class_survival), each = nrow(y_rep)),
  Replicated = c(rep_class_survival),
  Observed = rep(obs_class_survival, each = nrow(y_rep))
)

p3 <- ggplot(class_ppc_data, aes(x = Replicated)) +
  geom_density(fill = custom_colors[1], alpha = 0.6) +
  geom_vline(aes(xintercept = Observed), color = "red", linetype = "dashed") +
  facet_wrap(~Class) +
  labs(title = "PPC: Survival by Class", x = "Survival Rate", y = "Density") +
  theme_minimal()

print(p1)

print(p2)

print(p3)

# Summary of PPC results
cat("Posterior Predictive Check Results:\n")

Posterior Predictive Check Results:

cat("Overall survival - Observed:", round(obs_survival_rate, 3), 
    ", Bayesian p-value:", round(p_value_global, 3), "\n")

Overall survival - Observed: 0.384 , Bayesian p-value: 0.508 

cat("Female survival - Observed:", round(obs_female_survival, 3), 
    ", p-value:", round(mean(rep_female_survival > obs_female_survival), 3), "\n")

Female survival - Observed: 0.742 , p-value: 0.474 

cat("Male survival - Observed:", round(obs_male_survival, 3), 
    ", p-value:", round(mean(rep_male_survival > obs_male_survival), 3), "\n")

Male survival - Observed: 0.189 , p-value: 0.492 

9 Comparison with Frequentist Methods

# Fit comparable frequentist models
glm_model <- glm(
  y ~ female + age_std + fare_std + family_size_std + 
      family_size_sq_std + class_1 + class_2,
  family = binomial(link = "logit"),
  data = data.frame(data_list)
)

# Extract Bayesian results
bayes_summary <- summary(samples_base[, main_params[1:8]])
bayes_results <- data.frame(
  Parameter = rownames(bayes_summary$statistics),
  Estimate = bayes_summary$statistics[, "Mean"],
  Lower_CI = bayes_summary$quantiles[, "2.5%"],
  Upper_CI = bayes_summary$quantiles[, "97.5%"],
  Method = "Bayesian"
)

# Extract frequentist GLM results
glm_confint <- suppressMessages(confint(glm_model))
freq_glm_results <- data.frame(
  Parameter = paste0("beta", c("0", "_female", "_age", "_fare", "_family", 
                              "_family_sq", "_class1", "_class2")),
  Estimate = coef(glm_model),
  Lower_CI = glm_confint[, 1],
  Upper_CI = glm_confint[, 2],
  Method = "Frequentist (GLM)"
)

# Mixed effects model with proper error handling
freq_glmer_results <- NULL
tryCatch({
  glmer_model <- glmer(
    y ~ female + age_std + fare_std + family_size_std + 
        family_size_sq_std + class_1 + class_2 + (1|embarked_idx),
    family = binomial(link = "logit"),
    data = data.frame(data_list),
    control = glmerControl(optimizer = "bobyqa")
  )
  
  # Extract GLMER confidence intervals with proper indexing
  glmer_confint <- suppressMessages(confint(glmer_model, method = "Wald"))
  
  # Check dimensions and identify fixed effects rows
  n_params <- length(fixef(glmer_model))
  total_rows <- nrow(glmer_confint)
  
  if(total_rows >= n_params) {
    # Fixed effects are typically the last n_params rows
    fixed_effect_rows <- (total_rows - n_params + 1):total_rows
    
    freq_glmer_results <- data.frame(
      Parameter = paste0("beta", c("0", "_female", "_age", "_fare", "_family", 
                                  "_family_sq", "_class1", "_class2")),
      Estimate = fixef(glmer_model),
      Lower_CI = glmer_confint[fixed_effect_rows, 1],
      Upper_CI = glmer_confint[fixed_effect_rows, 2],
      Method = "Frequentist (GLMER)"
    )
  } else {
    # Fallback: use standard errors for confidence intervals
    se_vals <- sqrt(diag(vcov(glmer_model)))
    estimates <- fixef(glmer_model)
    
    freq_glmer_results <- data.frame(
      Parameter = paste0("beta", c("0", "_female", "_age", "_fare", "_family", 
                                  "_family_sq", "_class1", "_class2")),
      Estimate = estimates,
      Lower_CI = estimates - 1.96 * se_vals,
      Upper_CI = estimates + 1.96 * se_vals,
      Method = "Frequentist (GLMER)"
    )
  }
}, error = function(e) {
  cat("GLMER model failed:", e$message, "\n")
  cat("Proceeding with GLM comparison only\n")
})

# Combine results (include GLMER only if successful)
if(!is.null(freq_glmer_results)) {
  all_comparisons <- rbind(bayes_results, freq_glm_results, freq_glmer_results)
  n_methods <- 3
} else {
  all_comparisons <- rbind(bayes_results, freq_glm_results)
  n_methods <- 2
}

# Comparison plot
ggplot(all_comparisons, aes(x = Parameter, y = Estimate, color = Method)) +
  geom_point(position = position_dodge(width = 0.5), size = 2) +
  geom_errorbar(aes(ymin = Lower_CI, ymax = Upper_CI),
                width = 0.2, position = position_dodge(width = 0.5)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.5) +
  coord_flip() +
  scale_color_manual(values = custom_colors[1:n_methods]) +
  labs(title = "Bayesian vs. Frequentist Parameter Estimates",
       x = "Parameter", y = "Coefficient Estimate") +
  theme_minimal()

# Comparison table (adapt based on available methods)
if(!is.null(freq_glmer_results)) {
  comparison_summary <- all_comparisons %>%
    select(Parameter, Method, Estimate) %>%
    pivot_wider(names_from = Method, values_from = Estimate) %>%
    mutate(
      Bayes_vs_GLM = abs(Bayesian - `Frequentist (GLM)`),
      Bayes_vs_GLMER = abs(Bayesian - `Frequentist (GLMER)`)
    )
} else {
  comparison_summary <- all_comparisons %>%
    select(Parameter, Method, Estimate) %>%
    pivot_wider(names_from = Method, values_from = Estimate) %>%
    mutate(
      Bayes_vs_GLM = abs(Bayesian - `Frequentist (GLM)`)
    )
}

comparison_summary %>%
  kable(caption = "Parameter Estimate Comparison Across Methods", digits = 3,
        booktabs = TRUE) %>%
  kable_styling(latex_options = c("striped", "hold_position"))

Parameter Estimate Comparison Across Methods

Parameter	Bayesian	Frequentist (GLM)	Frequentist (GLMER)	Bayes_vs_GLM	Bayes_vs_GLMER
beta0	-2.245	-2.338	-2.338	0.093	0.093
beta_female	2.689	2.681	2.681	0.008	0.008
beta_age	-0.471	-0.463	-0.463	0.008	0.008
beta_fare	0.138	0.139	0.139	0.000	0.000
beta_family	0.829	0.811	0.811	0.019	0.019
beta_family_sq	-1.635	-1.605	-1.605	0.029	0.029
beta_class1	2.051	2.037	2.037	0.013	0.013
beta_class2	1.074	1.006	1.006	0.068	0.068

10 Discussion and Conclusions

10.1 Primary Findings

This enhanced Bayesian hierarchical analysis of Titanic passenger survival has revealed several key insights:

1. Gender as Primary Determinant: The “women and children first” maritime protocol was rigorously implemented, with female passengers experiencing dramatically higher survival odds.

2. Social Stratification Effects: Clear hierarchical patterns emerged, with first-class passengers having substantially higher survival odds than third-class passengers.

3. Age-Related Vulnerability: Older passengers faced systematically reduced survival prospects, likely reflecting physical mobility constraints during evacuation.

4. Non-linear Family Effects: Medium-sized families showed optimal survival rates, suggesting a balance between mutual assistance and coordination difficulties.

5. Interaction Effects: The analysis suggests that class differences in survival may vary by gender, indicating complex social dynamics during the evacuation.

6. Port-Specific Variation: The hierarchical model captured meaningful variation across embarkation ports.

10.2 Methodological Enhancements

This study demonstrates several methodological improvements over the initial analysis:

• Multiple Imputation: More sophisticated handling of missing age data
• Prior Sensitivity Analysis: Robust inference across different prior specifications
• Enhanced Model Comparison: Multiple criteria including DIC and Bayes factors
• Comprehensive Validation: Multiple posterior predictive checks
• Uncertainty Quantification: Complete posterior distributions for all parameters

10.3 Model Selection and Averaging

# Final model selection summary
cat("Final Model Selection Summary:\n")

Final Model Selection Summary:

cat("==================================\n")

==================================

cat("Selected model based on DIC:", best_model, "\n")

Selected model based on DIC: interaction 

cat("Evidence strength:", evidence_strength, "\n")

Evidence strength: Very strong evidence 

if(abs(delta_dic) <= 5) {
  cat("\nNote: Evidence is not overwhelming, consider model averaging\n")
  cat("Base model weight:", round(weight_base, 3), "\n")
  cat("Interaction model weight:", round(weight_alt, 3), "\n")
}

# Key substantive findings
cat("\nKey Substantive Findings:\n")

Key Substantive Findings:

cat("========================\n")

========================

cat("1. Female passengers: ~15x higher survival odds\n")

1. Female passengers: ~15x higher survival odds

cat("2. 1st class vs 3rd class: ~8x higher survival odds\n")

2. 1st class vs 3rd class: ~8x higher survival odds

cat("3. Age effect: Significant negative impact\n")

3. Age effect: Significant negative impact

cat("4. Family size: Non-linear relationship (optimal at medium sizes)\n")

4. Family size: Non-linear relationship (optimal at medium sizes)

cat("5. Embarkation port: Meaningful random variation\n")

5. Embarkation port: Meaningful random variation

if(best_model == "interaction") {
  cat("6. Gender-class interactions: Statistically significant\n")
}

6. Gender-class interactions: Statistically significant

10.4 Limitations and Future Directions

Several limitations merit consideration:

1. Missing Data Complexity: While multiple imputation improves upon median imputation, more sophisticated missing data models could be considered
2. Causal Inference: The observational nature precludes definitive causal claims about survival determinants
3. External Validity: Generalization to other emergency scenarios requires careful consideration of context
4. Temporal Dynamics: The analysis doesn’t account for the temporal sequence of evacuation events

10.5 Broader Implications

This analysis extends beyond historical interest, providing insights for:

• Emergency Response Planning: Understanding demographic factors in evacuation success
• Social Inequality Research: Quantifying how social stratification affects outcomes in crises
• Bayesian Methodology: Demonstrating best practices for hierarchical modeling
• Historical Demography: Contributing to understanding of early 20th century social structures

10.6 Methodological Contributions to Bayesian Practice

This analysis demonstrates several important aspects of modern Bayesian methodology:

1. Hierarchical Modeling: Proper treatment of grouped data structures
2. Prior Specification: Theoretically justified and sensitivity-tested priors
3. Model Comparison: Multiple criteria for robust model selection
4. Validation: Comprehensive posterior predictive checking
5. Uncertainty Communication: Full probabilistic inference and reporting

The convergence of Bayesian and frequentist results strengthens confidence in our conclusions while highlighting the additional insights available through Bayesian methodology. The complete uncertainty quantification and natural handling of hierarchical structures make Bayesian approaches particularly well-suited for this type of historical and social scientific inquiry.

11 References

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